Carson head coach Jonathan Lowe. Brian Wilhite photo.
By Mike London
Salisbury Post
Back in 1921, the Praying Colonels of Centre College, a school with 225 students, beat Harvard 6-0 in front of 45,000 fans in Cambridge, Mass. Harvard hadn’t lost a football game for five years, so the loss to a team from the hills of Kentucky and their quarterback imported from Texas, shook up the the sports world.
That game remains arguably the biggest football upset in history.
East Rowan came close last Friday in a local version of a Centre vs. Harvard, David vs. Goliath matchup. The Mustangs were 36-point underdogs and were given a zero percent win probability by the Massey Ratings against a West Rowan team that doesn’t lose county games. The Mustangs led 27-7 in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t hang on. The Falcons now have won 92 of their 98 county contests in this century and are on the verge of a rare, five-game county sweep if they can beat Salisbury in a few weeks.
The Massey Ratings offer some truly wild predictions and evaluations for this Friday’s games. Carson is favored by 34 against East Rowan — yes, 34 — although even the Carson cheerleaders probably would be happy to take 34 points and the Mustangs, since the Cougars have lost three in a row. East is given a 1 percent chance of pulling this one out by the Massey Ratings, who obviously haven’t heard yet that Julian Cauble and Jason Bonds have figured things out, connecting for six TDs in the last two weeks. Carson probably should be favored at home, but not by anywhere close to 34.
Carson (3-4, 1-3) beat the Mustangs 42-28 in 2024. The last win for the Mustangs (3-4, 1-3) against Carson was in the delayed COVID season, in the spring of 2021. The Cougars lead 12-7 in the all-time series.
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There’s no shortage of county games with five Rowan teams in an eight-team conference.
South Rowan (3-4, 0-4) is in a similar position to East as the Raiders visit Salisbury (1-6, 0-4). While South and SHS share the basement in the SPC, the Hornets are favored by 31 points. South has had a rough stretch with lots of injuries and four straight losses, but the Hornets obviously have had their issues, as well. It may be the first time in recorded history that a 1-6 team has been favored by 31. It’s the first winnable game the Raiders have had in quite a while. They’re banged up, but they could make it exciting.
Salisbury wiped out the Raiders 41-0 in the most recent meeting in 2022. Salisbury forfeited an on-the-field victory to South in 2015, but the last time South actually won on the field against Salisbury was in 2009. The Hornets lead the all-time series 23-7.
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West Rowan (4-3, 3-1) is given a 2 percent chance to win at Robinson (6-1, 4-0). The Falcons are 32-point underdogs.
The Falcons have no shortage of talented players, but they did lose to Robinson by 41 last year and by more than 41 the year before that. It’s also true they are 0-fer this season in games against non-Rowan teams. Still, 32 sounds like too many. The Falcons shouldn’t lose by 32 to anyone in 5A.
The schools only have played four times. West won the first two; Robinson the last two. The most recent West win was in 2016.
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A.L. Brown (4-3, 3-1) is favored by 26 points at Hickory Ridge (3-4, 2-2) and has been given a 95 percent win probability in the Greater Metro Conference game. But you never know. These two programs played a 69-55 playoff game a while back, and Hickory Ridge beat the Wonders three straight times from 2021-23. The Wonders lead 7-4 in the all-time series.
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The game that matters most this Friday as far as conference crowns is the North Rowan (4-3, 4-0) at North Stanly (6-1, 3-1) contest in the Yadkin Valley Conference.
North Rowan is given a 53 percent win probability by the Massey Ratings with a tight score projection of 28-27. It’s possible, maybe probable, that the Cavaliers can win far more easily than that, but the Comets were looking great before they were dismantled by South Stanly last week. North Rowan won a tough one against South Stanly,
North Rowan doesn’t have many serious challengers in its league. If they can get this one in New London, they are a great bet to run the table in the YVC.
North Rowan leads the all-time series 17-8 and train-wrecked the Comets 49-0 in the most recent meeting in 2022. North Stanly’s most recent win in the series was in 2020.
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Another contest to keep an eye on will be the Northwest Cabarrus-Concord game on Friday. Northwest is favored by about four TDs to stay unbeaten in the SPC.
